Friday 16 January 2009

Share Trading

As we flounder around in the present financial meltdown, I've been seeing some articles promoting 'penny dreadful' stocks on the basis that you stand a greater chance of doubling your money than if you bought a blue chip stock like BHP, when the market eventually rises.

Whilst these small cap stocks may appeal because they don't cost much & therefore may seem affordable, the blurb doesn't take into account a number of other factors, like the cost of brokerage, which can be proportionately higher on small packages; what level of debt the company has (often high);  what its cash flow from operations is (often very little, the stock being promoted on the  'potential' of its mining tenaments/likely sales of software to customers & the like); whether the company is paying dividends (not likely at its present stage of growth, as any surplus funds in responsible companies are ploughed back into growing the business); inability to trade in options & other derivatives like CFDs in this class of share; finally & perhaps most importantly, the liquidity of the company, ie will you be able to dispose of the shares when you want to in the future?

I read recently that only about 3% of the 10c Australian shares listed in 2004 are worth more than $1 now, so you would have to ask yourself if your cash wouldn't have been better invested elsewhere.  On the other hand, there has been the occasional success story, if your gamble had paid off!  These are what lure people into this sector of the market.

Personally, I have come to the conclusion that trading in shares is more risky than trading in commodities and foreign exchange, for a variety of reasons such as quality of management & government intervention.

Wednesday 14 January 2009

Goals for '09

Well, the festive season has gone again, not that it was too festive this year with the economic meltdown preying on everyone's minds and our troops deployed in various trouble spots.  We had a quiet time, with family visiting and plenty of golf.  

Now the time has arrived for me to plan how to advance in '09,  by setting goals on various fronts.

Although I've always been a positive person, my upbringing tended to emphasise qualities like caution & thrift.  Whilst thrift is an excellent quality, it can be overcooked.  In recent years my thinking has changed from scarcity to abundance, mainly after I encountered a little book by a Wallace D Wattles called 'The Science of Getting Rich'.  http://www.scienceofgettingrich.net/gifts/freeresource4u.html

One goal which is well under way is to get a major travel itch scratched.  For many years, I have wanted to visit Egypt to see the pyramids & other remains of that incredible civilization and also Turkey to see the former capital of the Holy Roman Empire, Constantinople, or Istanbul as it is now, as well as Troy, Gallipoli etc.  In March/April his year we are visiting both after my annual trip to Thailand to play golf with a couple of mates, & as my partner has always wanted to do a cruise, we are also taking care of that goal, by doing a trip down the Nile - talk about multitasking!

The next major goal is to get my internet marketing efforts making some money to pay for another major overseas trip that is taking shape in the back of my mind.  Did I mention I was born with itchy feet?  I have decided I need a mentor, so will see how far I get with Alex Jeffreys http://www.mybloglog.com/buzz/community/Alex-Jeffreys.

In tandem with that, I intend to expand my share trading efforts into commodities and forex, which will require particularly careful planning.  When I have time from all that, I want to get my handicap down to single figures.  

Well, now that I have put myself on the spot by articulating my goals, '09 will be a busy year.